On January 2, 2024, the Indonesian central bank intervened in the foreign exchange market following a nearly 1% drop in the value of the rupiah against the U.SdollarThe currency's decline was attributed to several factors, including market disruptions caused by the New Year holidayBank Indonesia’s intervention, led by Edi Susianto, the head of its monetary and asset management division, aimed to stabilize the currency by maintaining a balance between its supply and demandThe intervention reflects broader concerns about Indonesia’s fiscal health, currency stability, and the country’s ability to navigate economic challenges in the coming year.

This action by the central bank was taken in a context where the Indonesian government was also facing significant public backlash against a planned increase in the value-added tax (VAT), which was set to take effect on January 1. President Prabowo, who had previously remained silent on the issue, unexpectedly attended a meeting at the Ministry of Finance and announced a change in the scope of the VAT increase

Initially set to apply to all goods and services, the VAT increase would now apply only to luxury items such as private jets, yachts, and high-end residencesEssential goods would either remain exempt or be taxed at the existing 0% VAT rate, ensuring that the country’s lower-income population would not bear the brunt of the increaseWhile the change is expected to protect the purchasing power of the average citizen, it has sparked debates about fiscal sustainability and the broader implications for Indonesia’s economic outlook.

The Indonesian government has been grappling with the need to bolster tax revenues, particularly since VAT constitutes a substantial portion—approximately one-quarter—of the country’s total tax receiptsFor the government, increasing VAT on luxury goods appears to be a relatively targeted way to boost revenue without burdening the lower-income population, which could be a politically sensitive issue

However, financial experts are raising concerns that the decision to limit the VAT increase could strain Indonesia’s fiscal health, particularly if it leads to a shortfall in the expected tax revenue.

Lloyd Chan, a foreign exchange strategist at MUFG Bank in Singapore, voiced concerns that the reduced scope of the VAT increase might lead to lower-than-expected government revenues in 2024, putting additional downward pressure on the rupiahThis worry is exacerbated by the fact that the rupiah has already been weakening relative to other major Asian currencies, reflecting broader concerns about Indonesia’s fiscal and economic outlookAlthough the U.Sdollar index has seen a slight decrease, the rupiah has been the hardest-hit currency in the region, a reflection of growing investor unease about the nation’s financial health.

Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati sought to downplay these concerns, emphasizing that the budget deficit for 2024 might end up being "significantly smaller" than the previously estimated 2.7% of GDP

Indrawati explained that strong government revenue in the latter half of 2023 had helped offset the increased government expenditures, a reassuring sign for the country’s fiscal healthAccording to her statements, the national budget for 2024 would be relatively healthy, laying a solid foundation for economic stability in 2025. Reports suggest that Indonesia is targeting a budget deficit of 2.53% of GDP for 2025, comfortably below the statutory ceiling of 3%, signaling that the government is aiming to manage its finances cautiously despite global economic uncertainty.

Despite the positive outlook from the finance ministry, the decision to restrict the VAT hike has drawn mixed reactions from various sectorsLionel Priyadi, a macro strategist at PT Mega Capital Indonesia, noted that while the decision to limit the VAT increase may benefit GDP growth and help manage inflation in the short term, it may also signal inconsistency in the government’s fiscal policy

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Priyadi’s comment reflects investor concerns about regulatory uncertainty in Indonesia, with many feeling that the government’s decision-making process lacks transparency and stability. 

Mukhamad Misbakhun, the chairman of the parliamentary finance committee, also weighed in on the issue, pointing out that a full VAT increase would have generated around 75 trillion IDR (approximately $4.6 billion) in revenueHowever, the restricted VAT increase would only yield about 3.2 trillion IDR, a significant reduction in expected revenueMisbakhun emphasized the difficulty of the decision, acknowledging that the government had to prioritize maintaining purchasing power, especially in light of the economic challenges faced by many Indonesians. 

The slow pace of Indonesia’s economic growth has further complicated the government’s positionIn the third quarter of 2024, the country experienced its weakest growth in a year, largely driven by sluggish consumer sentiment and significant layoffs in the manufacturing sector

With inflation remaining at the low end of Bank Indonesia’s target range of 1.5%-3.5% in January 2024, there are growing concerns about the potential for further stagnation if domestic consumption continues to falter. 

Business and labor organizations in Indonesia have raised alarms about the potential impact of the VAT hike, warning that it could severely inhibit the country’s economic recoveryThese groups argue that increasing VAT could escalate business costs, ultimately reducing consumer spending and stifling growth in the manufacturing and services sectorsThis would undermine the broader economy, especially given Indonesia’s reliance on domestic consumption to drive growthSome experts have likened the VAT increase to a “razor blade,” a sharp and painful policy choice that could inadvertently harm the very people it is intended to help.

From the government’s perspective, the decision to limit the VAT hike is part of a broader effort to strike a delicate balance between stimulating economic growth and ensuring fiscal sustainability

President Prabowo has ambitious plans for government spending in the coming years, with proposals for significant social programs such as a $30 billion free meal initiative aimed at addressing food security, along with large-scale school renovations and health screenings for the populationThese initiatives, which were central to Prabowo’s campaign, require substantial public investment, and the government will need to generate significant revenue to fund them.

Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati reiterated the government’s commitment to fostering economic growth, asserting that stimulus measures would be introduced to mitigate the effects of the VAT increaseThese measures are aimed at protecting the most vulnerable sectors of society and ensuring that the economy remains resilient in the face of external challenges. 

In the broader context, Indonesia is at a critical juncture in its economic development

While the government has ambitious plans for social welfare and national development, it must also contend with the complexities of fiscal managementRising costs, regulatory uncertainty, and slow economic growth are all significant obstaclesThe ability of the government to balance the need for revenue with the imperative of maintaining domestic consumption will be key to navigating the country’s economic future.

Looking ahead, it remains to be seen whether the government’s approach will succeed in stabilizing the rupiah and strengthening Indonesia’s fiscal positionThe challenges are considerable, but the authorities’ willingness to make difficult decisions—such as limiting the VAT increase—reflects a pragmatic attempt to address the nation’s fiscal constraints while also seeking to protect the economy from excessive strainWith careful management, Indonesia may yet find a way to overcome these challenges and achieve its development goals.